Bitcoin’s next major supply cut—known as the halving—is set to occur around March or April 2028, slashing the reward miners earn per block in half. Though still several years away, history suggests investors who act early could benefit significantly.
Previous halving cycles have demonstrated a consistent pattern: Bitcoin often begins its upward trajectory about a year before the halving takes place. According to data from Coinbase, Bitcoin posted average gains of 61% in the six months leading up to the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, with momentum typically starting about 12 months before the event.
The reason? Market participants anticipate the impact of reduced supply. Miners, aware of the impending revenue drop, tend to hold onto their coins or even accumulate more, leading to lower exchange balances. This prompts new buyers to step in, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of increasing demand and tightening supply.
Although there’s no guarantee the 2028 halving will mirror past results—regulatory changes or macroeconomic headwinds could affect market sentiment—the fundamental principles of supply and demand still apply.
Moreover, the largest price surges historically occur after the halving, not before. As new coin issuance slows, scarcity kicks in, often fueling dramatic gains over the following year. On average, Bitcoin has soared 348% in the six months post-halving across previous cycles.
For investors looking to prepare, starting early offers the advantage of dollar-cost averaging. With roughly 140 weeks until the next halving, spreading out purchases can help mitigate volatility and reduce the emotional burden of trying to time the market.
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In short, waiting until headlines herald the next halving could leave investors paying significantly more. The time to start positioning—slowly and consistently—is now. @ffr
